We’re just days away from The Academy Awards, and as both a movie fan and a noted prognosticator, I couldn’t be more fired up. There are a ton of worthy films and stars up for awards this year, and while there are overwhelming favorites in several categories, there’s also room for plenty of surprises in several more, which is always the perfect balance. I don’t want all chaos, but a little bit of uncertainty goes a long way in making the night more exciting.
I can’t promise I’ll help you win your office Oscar pool, but I can promise you, if you take my advice, you’ll have an extremely credible and competitive ballot. What follows are my predictions for all the Oscar categories, excluding the shorts and documentaries, which are way outside my wheelhouse. I went with a majority of the favorites, but there are also some areas where I went with something a little more unexpected, as there are always at least a few big surprise every year.
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Some of the categories we’ll get into have a lot more uncertainty, but at this point, it would be a big surprise if Oppenheimer didn’t win the big prize. Apart from Barbie, it was the most culturally significant movie of the year, and it seems to be the only widely seen movie that pretty much everyone agrees was Best Picture worthy. I have no idea what percent of Academy voters are going to pick it, but I’d be surprised if it didn’t win very comfortably.
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
I love Paul Giamatti, and he’s definitely still in this race. He won at Critics Choice and picked up a Golden Globe in the comedy category. He’s a relatively strong darkhorse, but Cillian Murphy has done a lot of winning this year with various critics groups, as well as at BAFTA and SAG. He’s also the lead actor in what’s almost certainly going to win Best Picture, which is usually a good sign. There’s probably an 80% chance he wins here with 15% going to Giamatti and 5% going to the rest of the field.
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone
This is the most competitive of the biggest categories. Emma Stone won at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Lily Gladstone won at SAG and The Golden Globes. Both are very deserving, though they gave very different performances in their individual movies. Ordinarily, the tiebreaker here would go to the overall movie people seem to like better, which I think would be Poor Things, but since Stone already has an Oscar and several nominations, I think voters will decide to honor Gladstone for her incredible work. We’ll see.
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr
RDJ’s third nomination is almost certainly the one that’s finally going to give him his victory. He’s picked up all the major precursor awards, and like Murphy, he’s a key part of the most lauded and well-liked movie of the year. Voters also typically love a showier performance, and Downey Jr really goes all out here in a role that allows him to show off a big transformation. Plus, this is a sneaky great way for everyone to retroactively reward him for how much we all loved his career rejuvenating run as Iron Man.
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Randolph is going to cruise to victory here for two reasons. First, she gives a tremendous supporting performance that is full of so much personality and so many layers. Second, voters love to find a way to show love to a movie they’re not going to support in other categories. The Holdovers is terrific, but it’s not going to beat Oppenheimer. Lead actor Paul Giamatti is probably going to be a hard luck loser in Best Actor. Alexander Payne was shockingly not nominated for Best Director. She deserves to win, and The Holdovers deserves to win a major category.
Best Director: Christopher Nolan
Christopher Nolan is among the most famous working directors today and has an incredibly high approval rating among casual movie fans, but if you look back at his track record, he’s actually very underappreciated by The Academy. His peers at The Director’s Guild nominated him for Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, Dunkirk and now Oppenheimer, but the Oscars have only recognized him in directing with a nomination for Dunkirk and now Oppenheimer. He deserves to win here for Oppenheimer because he made a great movie, but I think there’s also a feeling that he deserves to be an Oscar winner as recognition for his entire career.
Original Screenplay: Anatomy Of A Fall
The WGA isn’t handing out its awards until April this year, which means they’re not a helpful precursor for understanding how that branch might be feeling. That being said, Anatomy Of A Fall has done a lot of winning in screenplay categories so far, and this feels like an opportunity for everyone to honor a well-liked movie that also picked up several other nominations including a Best Director nod for Justine Triet.
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
There’s been a lot of weirdness with Barbie’s screenplay. Almost everyone thought it belonged in the Original category, but it was ultimately decided that because it was based off something the screenwriters didn’t create, it should go in Adapted. Given how much people love that movie and need to find a place to honor it, there’s a chance it wins here, but American Fiction won at The BAFTAs and at Critics Choice. It feels like a weird move to bet against it here.
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer is a visual marvel. The entire movie looks great, but in its standout moments, it delivers the most gripping shots of the entire year. Oscar voters will find spaces to reward other movies and spread some of the love around, but it would be a surprise if that happened in cinematography, given how impressive and showy the work is here.
Film Editing: Oppenheimer
The same thing goes here in film editing. There’s a strong correlation between editing and best picture wins, but Oppenheimer in particular stands out for its tremendous editing. It’s a long movie, but it never feels like it lingers too long. It’s all just so, and at times the pacing feels particularly noteworthy and impressive, which is always at least partially a credit to the editing.
Production Design: Barbie
This is a really tough category. Barbie and Poor Things are both broadly popular movies, Poor Things by Oscar standards and Barbie by any standards, that have a terrific, well-crafted aesthetic. Voters are going to be looking to reward them with votes in below the line categories since they probably aren’t winning major ones, and production design is the first of those battles. Many people are predicting Poor Things, which is certainly the more artsy of the two, but sometimes Oscar voters like loud and there’s nothing louder than a Mojo Dojo Casa House.
Costume Design: Poor Things
I think voters are going to split in costume design and production design. I don’t really know which movie has the edge in which category, but I think they both deserve to be recognized for their outstanding visual look in the technical areas. The costumes are definitely showier in Barbie, but Poor Things does a great job of creating an entire visual style that feels authentic to the mood and time period the movie creates.
Makeup And Hairstyling: Maestro
This is often a category where Academy voters reward the most obvious example of make-up and/ or weird hairstyles. Maestro does a terrific job with Bradley Cooper’s much-talked about prosthetic, and this feels like a good opportunity for voters to also reward a movie with nominations in other categories that’s unlikely to win anywhere else.
Sound: Oppenheimer
Maestro has to be a strong contender because of its subject matter, but given Oppenheimer uses sound in key, plot-specific ways and is the heavy favorite to win a ton of statues, I’m certainly not gonna vote against it here.
Score: Oppenheimer
You could make a case that one of the single best parts of Oppenheimer is the score. It’s arguably better than any of the acting performance or even the direction. It’s absolutely spectacular, and given Oppenheimer’s strength in the major categories and the fact that every voter no doubt watched it, I’d be shocked if it didn’t win here.
Original Song: Barbie’s “What Was I Made For?”
Barbie is almost certainly going to win here. It may lose production design and costuming to Poor Things, but it should feel very comfortable about its chances here. The only real question is whether Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” is able to beat “I’m Just Ken.” I think yes, given its breakout popularity, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
There aren’t a ton of precursor awards for Best Visual Effects, and Oscar voters don’t always agree with what the VFX workers choose in their own ceremony. Often, the winner tends to be a well-liked movie with good visual effects, and I think Godzilla Minus One fits that bill. It was a surprise box office success and involves classic subject matter with an obvious need for VFX.
International Feature Film: The Zone Of Interest
The Zone Of Interest has really broken out in a way not a ton of international features do. It’s not exactly Barbie, but it’s starting to generate conversation among casuals and will have been seen by almost every Oscar voter. That’s always an important consideration in International Feature Film. Plus, it’s great and should win, I say as a big hypocrite who has not seen all of these movies.
Animated Feature Film: The Boy And The Heron
This is probably the most aggressive upset I’ve chosen. Spider-Verse 2 is definitely the favorite, but given the original won in 2019 and Japanese animation continues to become more mainstream, I think there’s a real chance voters may want to reward beloved director Hayao Miyazaki with this win. I wouldn’t bet large amounts of money on it, but I think The Boy And The Heron is way more in play than people are giving it credit for.
